<p>With the release of the gameplay trailer, I think that the time has come to rework my theory. I'm pretty sure now that the cult we saw in the cinematic trailer is going to be the antagonists. Maybe, in the aftermath of the fall of the Fireflies about five years previously, they've become the ones giving hope and direction to the survivors in North America. Now, they've attacked Jackson and are responsible for the death of Ellie's girlfriend.
</p><p>So, I'm still calling that this is going to be a vendetta storyline but I think that this new faction, this cult, is going to be the antagonist. Maybe they know something about Ellie's past that will be the final-reel shock reveal?
</p><p>To summarise my current working theory:
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- Jackson is probably going to be damaged but intact; if the town had been destroyed, then Joel wouldn't be questioning Ellie's rampage but be right alongside her;
- Dina will likely die during the Cult's attack on Jackson and avenging her will be Ellie's primary motivation;
- The current leadership of the Cult will know something about Ellie's mysterious origins. When they find out who she is, their attitude towards her might change considerably (she'll either be a manifestation of the Divine on Earth or the Arch-demon herself).